Burma coup resistance notes July 6, 2024
Resistance closes in on Mandalay & Lashio; the Chin liberate Matupi; Karenni return to Loikaw; Karen aim to finish off failed Aung Zeya armored column; the junta makes war on banking & retail sectors.
Operation 10/27 Second Wave-------------------
Operation 10/27 Second Wave continued this week in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region (dubbed “Shan-Man”).
Ta’ang and PDF forces took control of the west side of Mogok city in northern Mandalay Region on June 30, capturing an army battalion camp there and 15 live junta troops, as well as the police barracks 5 km west of Mogok. They then began working on the eastern side of town. By July 3 they had taken most of the junta positions in the city and were attacking the holdouts. Jets conducted airstrikes, and junta troops are preventing civilians from leaving the city, using them as human shields. (People's Spring 6/30, The Irrawaddy B 7/1, NUG Ministry of Defense 7/3)
The Ta’ang army (TNLA) says that before they left, junta troops broke into a KBZ Bank branch and stole the equivalent of over US$400,000 and some gems. They also robbed a CB Bank branch. (Mizzima 7/5)
The Ta’ang also captured a junta navy base on the Irrawaddy River in Shan Momeik Township, just to the north of Mogok. (People's Spring 6/30)
Kokang and Ta’ang forces are both assaulting Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State and seat of the junta’s northeast command HQ. Fighting started on June 29 and intensified on July 3, and the Kokang captured a key junta defense battalion guarding the city, No. 291, where more than 300 junta troops surrendered. Now the Kokang forces are inside the city. Tens of thousands of residents are fleeing, but the junta has destroyed the roads, and flights and buses to and from the city are suspended. At least 13 civilians have been killed by junta shelling. (Khit Thit Media, Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/3, People's Spring 7/6) Lashio is outside Ta’ang and Kokang territory, but they appear to be pursuing the junta’s eradication from northern Shan State and Mandalay Region.
Troops in an encircled artillery battalion camp in Naungcho Township, No. 606, have been firing chemical gas shells, poisoning Ta’ang soldiers. (People's Spring 7/5)
With the renewed fighting, the junta is bombing again in liberated areas such as Theinni, and residents of Laukkaing, deep inside liberated Kokang territory, are leaving town in anticipation of airstrikes. (The Irrawaddy B 7/5)
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Chin-------------------
Chin forces completed their liberation of Matupi town in southern Chin State on June 29 when they overcame the last remaining junta camp there. The Chin began the conquest with a June 17 assault. (People's Spring 6/29) The Chin have now liberated more than 10 of the state’s towns.
By conquering the junta’s Matupi battalions, the Chin came into possession of a large armory of weapons including a howitzer artillery, anti-aircraft machine guns, hundreds of rifles and grenades, 120mm mortars, and thousands of ammunition. (Chin Brotherhood 7/1)
The defeated troops from Matupi have moved to Mindat town, where they are firing on nearby civilian villages. (People's Spring 6/30)
Karenni-----------------
After Karenni forces were driven out of parts of Loikaw by a massive junta counter-offensive on June 30, thousands of joyful residents streamed back into the city to re-inhabit their homes for the first time in 8 months on July 3. Many were unfortunate, however, in finding their homes destroyed by junta bombing. (Local sources 7/3) Then on July 4 fighting broke out again in 3 urban wards as the Karenni military re-entered its capital. A Karenni commander advised residents not to return yet until the occupiers are completely expelled. (Kantarawaddy Times 7/4, The Irrawaddy B 7/6)
A junta column battling its way south toward Pekhon from Pinlaung in southern Shan State since June 29 has been halted and savaged by Karenni defense forces at Saungpyaung village. On July 2 the Karenni announced that 18 junta troops have been killed and some weapons captured. Also killed was the top commander of a pro-junta ethnic Pa-O militia, Khun Maung Mwe.
Kawthoolei-----------------
The junta’s armored Aung Zeya column, which left Mawlamyaing to go reinforce Myawaddy at the beginning of April, has retreated from the foot of the Dawna mountain range to Kaw T’Ree town (Kawkareik) after failing to penetrate Karen army defenses and suffering heavy losses there for three months. The surviving troops kicked the monks out of a Kaw T’Ree monastery and made camp there. (Burma News International 7/2) Three junta battalions are converting the town into a military complex where civilians have no freedom of movement. (Karen Information Center 7/2)
The Karen army began an effort to recapture Kaw T’Ree on July 5 by attacking two sites just north of town in Pa’an District. They warned that they will crush the remnants of the so-called Aung Zeya armored column, and said if the junta troops want to survive, they need to bring their weapons and surrender to the Karen army. (People's Spring 7/5)
A stalemate continues in Mutraw District south of Papun town, where 3 besieged junta camps can only be resupplied by air drops, and the Karen forces intercept some of these supply drops. The KNU says 60 junta troops were killed in this situation during June, and 19 were wounded during 122 clashes. Two Karen soldiers also died. (People's Spring 7/5)
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Kachin-----------------
Military activity took a pause this week in Kachin State due to severe flooding all along the great Irrawaddy River.
People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)-----------------
The Mandalay PDF, which has trained and fought with the Ta’ang ethnic army (TNLA), has captured 8 junta camps in just over a week of attacks in Maddaya Township, just north of Mandalay, Burma’s second-largest city. The PDF captured 125 rifles, mortars, grenades, and other supplies. Five junta troops were killed and 64 were captured alive. (People's Spring 7/6)
In the next township to the north, Sinku, PDFs have been attacking junta positions and captured a camp on July 2 and a police barracks on the Mandalay-Mogok road on July 3. The Mandalay PDF has now conquered 6 junta camps in Sinku Township in addition to the 8 in Maddaya. At least 30 junta troops and Pyu Saw Htee terrorists have been killed so far, and others fled or defected to the PDF. Jets carried out airstrikes that killed some civilians, and the junta sent reinforcements and artillery to defend Sinku town. (Myaelatt Athan 7/2, Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/3, Khit Thit Media 7/4)
Mogok city, where the Ta’ang army has taken partial control, is just northeast of that. Thus, the resistance is approaching Mandalay from the north.
South of Mandalay City, a PDF in Ywangan Township, just over the boundary in southern Shan State, attacked a junta patrol of 40 troops on July 5, killing 12 of them and wounding others. The PDF captured some weapons and the drugs used by the junta troops. (Mekong News)
PDFs in Sagaing Region have repeatedly attacked truck convoys carrying ore from the Chinese-owned copper mines lately, causing small numbers of casualties but disrupting the China-junta collaborative mining business. Roadside bombs and gunfire are used against the convoys. (Chindwin Yoma News 7/3)
Urban warfare------------------
A bomb blew up in a junta-owned cigarette factory in Mingaladon Township of Yangon on June 30, starting a fire and causing extensive damage. (Khit Thit Media 7/4)
Junta decline------------------
The junta is threatening its own troops, saying it will shoot to kill any who try to surrender in Shan State and Mandalay Region during Operation 10/27 Second Wave. Family members will also be punished. During the first wave of 10/27 over 4,000 junta troops and commanders surrendered to ethnic forces, contributing to the junta’s loss of control over the entire China border area. Some have already been captured during the second wave also. (Khit Thit Media 7/2)
A report in The Irrawaddy news says the junta is refusing to extricate soldiers’ family members from battle zones in Arakan State in order to force troops to continue fighting out of fear for their loved ones. The Burma army has always used human shields, and this extends to its own civilians. (The Irrawaddy Burmese edition 6/30)
The junta is hushing-up news about its losses in Shan State. It imposed a news blackout of the funerals of 12 troops including an officer from the Pyin Oo Lwin military academy who were killed in the battle of Naungcho, but it was leaked anyway. (Khit Thit Media 6/30) Normally, personnel from the training academy would not be on the front lines, but the junta is running out of people to fight.
A junta deputy commander fled his unit in Khin Oo Township of Sagaing Region on July 2, bringing 2 rifles, ammunition, and grenades to the local PDF. He said there is a lot of mistrust of the junta leadership within his battalion and many other soldiers want to flee as well. (Khit Thit Media 7/2)
Terrorism--------------------
Now that Naungcho and Chaukme towns in Shan State have been liberated, junta jets are bombing with the intent to destroy them. (Khit Thit Media 7/1)
There are widespread reports of sexual assault and harassment of local women and girls by junta troops in southern Mon State in the Jai River area. (Than Lwin Times 7/6) This area was liberated by the Karen army but was retaken by the junta’s armored column that is currently stuck in Kaw T’Ree, and troops are punishing the local population.
Junta troops encircled by PDFs in Kantbalu Township of northern Sagaing Region kidnapped 11 local women and 3 men. They beat the men and are holding these civilians hostage, demanding that the village provide food for the troops. (Khit Thit Media 7/6)
Political and economic-------------------
Another junta-collaborationist aid agency is feeling the negative effects of its regime involvement in Arakan State. Troops pillaged medical supplies of the International Committee of the Red Cross and have been selling them in Maungdaw Township. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/2) Like other collaborationist agencies, the ICRC chose to work in junta-controlled areas rather than serve the great majority of people in need, who are in areas outside of regime control. The Myanmar Red Cross is under direct regime manipulation.
The junta kidnapped the directors of 7 of Burma’s top banks, claiming that these private banks were making housing loans with interest rates that exceeded its declared fixed rate. Similarly, it detained the owners of 11 supermarket chains for selling rice above the regime’s fixed price, at which retailers lose money. (The Irrawaddy B 7/1) One of the kidnapped supermarket CEOs is a Japanese national, who apparently hadn’t anticipated any consequences from doing business-as-usual that supports the junta. These are more examples of mismanagement by the economically illiterate regime, trying to set the prices of everything, which has led to shortages of food, fuel, electricity, and other key commodities.
As an indication of why import and export trade have been choked off and commodities are scarce and expensive in Burma, here are the differences between the actual exchange rates and the ones that the junta-mandated rates, for several relevant currencies: US dollar – 4610:1 actual, 2100 junta; Singapore dollar – 3440 actual, 1550 junta; Thai baht – 127 actual, 57 junta. (Mizzima 7/5) The junta-imposed exchange rates mean traders would lose over 50% of their money in any trade, which makes commerce impossible.
A recent visit by a junta representative to Iran turned out to be a drone shopping trip. Iran delivered 2 planeloads of materials at the end of June, one of which was war drones. The other isn’t known yet. (The Irrawaddy B 6/30)
Thailand’s military regime is closing all of its centers for documentation of Burma citizens fleeing the civil war and seeking asylum. The move was requested by the illegal Burmese military regime. (Burma News International 7/2) Many of the refugees are fleeing the junta’s forced recruitment campaign.
-စီၤ ထံဆၢ
Thanks Thra Sweetwater.
This time round 3BA aim to take Lashio, which - amazingly - seems doable. I don't think they want to stop again at least until then, which would be (another) game-charger.