Burma coup resistance notes November 11, 2023
The regime is crumbling under the pressure of widespread losses; over 160 camps lost; towns are falling like dominos. The junta is sending all non-combat personnel to the front lines.
Operation 10/27-------------------
The Ta’ang army completed its liberation of Namkan city near the China border on Nov. 6. The Kokang took Kamlon and the Arakan Army captured Monko town. That makes at least 7 major northern Shan towns now under Revolution control. The Kokang flag is flying at the China border crossings at Monko and Chinshwehaw. (Mizzima 11/6) The Kokang now control key bridges over the Salween River. (People's Spring 11/9)
An Arakan Army drone bomb detonated a junta camp’s ammunition depot and killed the commander of a military division. Col. Aung Kyaw Lwin, commander of the 99th Light Infantry Division died on Nov. 6 in Monko at a camp that was then captured. (The IrrawaddyE 11/7)
At least one junta artillery shell aimed at the Kachin government (KIO) HQ in Laiza crossed the border and exploded in China, killing a woman and wounding 3 other civilians on Nov. 4. At least 19 civilians were also killed and 30,000 displaced by junta bombing on the Burma side. (Khit Thit Media 11/4)
The Ta’ang, Kokang, Arakan, and Kachin armies and Mandalay and Sagaing PDFs went on capturing more junta camps this week across Shan State and Sagaing Region. At one camp of a junta-proxy militia the Ta’ang army arrested 38 of the militia members and seized 78 rifles along with ammunition and equipment. (Khit Thit Media 11/4)
As the Ta’ang were seizing 2 more camps on Nov. 5, the junta sent 4 trucks to their support, but they were all captured along with weapons between Lashio and Theinni. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 11/5)
The Kokang captured a 7th junta tank and two howitzer artillery guns on Nov. 7 when they seized another camp in Monko Township. (People's Spring 11/7)
The Ta’ang army clashed in Muse with the northern Shan SSPP militia which has not been part of Operation 10/27. The SSPP says the Ta’ang captured and killed two of its political, non-military officers. Muse is the main border crossing town to China. (The IrrawaddyE 11/8)
Kawthoolei----------------
Karen army Brigade 6 and allied PDFs attacked five junta positions simultaneously on Nov. 2, including some inside Notakaw town and the Kwi Ler Dter border camp. They killed 45 troops and captured a few weapons, but lost 3 Revolutionary soldiers as well. The commander from the NUG’s southern command Special Operations Group commented that these are hard targets, difficult to overcome. (Mizzima 11/5)
In Notakaw the junta has lost control of all administrative buildings in the city and is confined to its army bases due to the pressure of Karen army and NUG forces. Those forces refrain from taking control of the city, however, as long as there is the danger of junta mortar fire and airstrikes. (Mizzima 11/7)
Kachin----------------
The Kachin army has been on the attack in Sagaing Region (see below), participating in the liberation of Kampat, Kawlin, and Htee Chaing towns. With local PDF allies it also attacked and occupied 3 junta camps in Homalin Township on Nov. 9, killing at least 20 troops of the junta and its ethnic proxy Shanni militia. (Khit Thit Media 11/9) The Kachin also seized a junta camp near Seizin in Hpakant Township on Nov. 9, and a junta jet accidently bombed the camp of its Shanni lackeys. (Mizzima 11/9)
Arakan-----------------
There are more and more reports that the junta seems to be preparing to attack the Arakan Army in Arakan State. The AA stopped fighting a year ago, but the junta has increased its troops and checkpoints there. (Khit Thit Media 11/4) As the junta loses control of more parts of the country, it continues to pick new fights in other places.
The AA detained 7 junta police in Myauk U Township of Arakan State on Nov. 7. (Myanmar Now 11/7) This is the type of action that preceded the start of hostilities in August 2022, which lasted for 3 months.
Karenni------------------
After five months of the junta trying to recapture Mese in southern Karenni State, Karenni forces counter-attacked at Pantein village on Nov. 7, capturing a junta camp and a large number of weapons and killing at least 20 junta troops. (The IrrawaddyB 11/7) Four trucks of a junta convoy were destroyed on their way from Loikaw to Demawso on Nov. 5. (People's Spring 11/8) The junta is withdrawing troops from Karenni to send them back to Shan State to fight Operation 10/27. The Karenni are preparing for a major drive to expel junta forces.
Karenni defense forces have been recycling unexploded junta mortar shells and jet bombs into drone bombs that they drop on junta troops. The 500 pound jet bombs burrow 3 meters into the earth, and if they don’t explode they can be dug out, defused, dismantled, and salvaged for explosives. (Shwe Phee Myay 11/6)
People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)-----------------
PDFs took full control of Kawlin town in Sagaing Region following a 3-day battle Nov. 3-5. They finally captured the police barracks and freed the political prisoners. About 50 junta troops were killed and 21 surrendered and 70 weapons were seized. (Khit Thit Media 11/6) Kawlin was the first Sagaing town to be fully liberated by Revolution forces.
Second and 3rd Sagaing towns were fully liberated following Kawlin. On Nov. 7 the Kachin army and local PDFs overtook the police barracks and the army camp in Kampat, on the border with India and Chin State. (The IrrawaddyB 11/7) This is over 100 km outside of Kachin State. Then they captured another township administrative capital, Pinleibu, the same day. The 100 junta troops and police waved a white flag and surrendered. (Kachin News Group 11/8)
A fourth town, Htee Chaing, is mostly liberated, with only the junta police barracks still holding out. (People's Spring 11/9)
A junta column of 200 troops and Pyu Saw Htee came to try to retake Kawlin from Kantbalu on Nov. 10, but was devastated by a PDF counter-attack in which 80 junta troops died, 20 were wounded, and 59 weapons were seized. Many of the rest ran away. (Mandalay Free Press 11/10)
PDFs attacked and destroyed a junta camp at the entrance to Chaung Oo town in Sagaing Region on Nov. 4, killing many of its contingent of 30 to 50 troops, though numbers aren’t reported. Five PDF soldiers were also killed in the battle. (Myaelatt Athan 11/4)
A video from the PDF capture of a junta camp at Yasajol junta prison camp on Nov. 3 shows a number of dead troops, but the majority, over 20, surrendered, along with about 20 prison staff. Civilians held in the camp were released. (People's Spring 11/4)
The pattern continued at a gate camp in Monywa Township when PDFs stormed the camp on Nov. 4, killing 14 junta troops but losing 6 PDF soldiers killed as well. The rest of the junta troops fled, leaving their weapons to be seized by the PDFs. (Khit Thit Media 11/5)
PDFs attacked the police barracks in Myaing town, Magway Region on Nov. 3, killing 19 junta police and 2 troops. The PDFs aim to liberate the town. (Khit Thit Media 11/4)
A flotilla of 7 junta boats descending the Chindwin River was attacked by PDFs in Kani Township Nov. 6-10, and six boats were captured. (People's Spring 11/7) This seriously disrupts the junta’s Sagaing supply network, since the roads are already dangerous from PDF roadside bombs.
Urban warfare------------------
Several junta targets in Yangon were bombed by an urban guerrilla group called Freeland Liberation Army on Nov. 9, including a court house in Thanlyin, an admin office in Tamwe, and a video surveillance node in an unnamed location. The group said the attacks were in solidarity with Operation 10/27 up north. (People's Spring 11/9) The next night a bomb injured a police chief and his son in North Okalappa Township of Yangon at their home. (Khit Thit Media 11/11)
Junta decline------------------
In response to the massive losses in Shan State from Operation 10/27 the junta declared a state of emergency within the military itself. It cancelled all leave and ordered all personnel, including support services, to the front line. Courses at military academies are canceled and all masters, PhD, and medical students as well as instructors must go to fight. Workers from the junta’s weapons factories are also being sent, as are new recruits who haven’t finished basic training. (Khit Thit Media 11/5) In an emergency meeting on Nov. 7 the top junta brass made “imaginary decisions” to retake all the lost ground, while more towns and bases were falling to the Revolution. (Khit Thit Media 11/8)
Soldiers and officers based in Bago Region fled and deserted on Nov. 2 rather than be sent to northern Shan. (Myaelatt Athan 11/5)
A CDM military analyst, Maung Wi, lists three major reasons why the junta is losing every battle since Operation 10/27 began. The first, he says, is that the troops are armed with poor-quality rifles manufactured by the army itself, that overheat and malfunction after only 20 rounds fired in rapid succession. A second factor is the reliance on China’s cast-off second-hand fighter planes. A third is the condition of the troops – exhausted, feeling hated by the people, ordered repeatedly into futile confrontations. Revolutionary forces are being helped by the people. (BBM 11/4)
Some analysts are suggesting that failing dictator Min Aung Hlaing will be toppled by his own generals, who will then attempt to negotiate with the NUG for the survival of the regime in some form. (The IrrawaddyE 11/7)
Junta workers and dependents are fleeing Myawaddy, Pyin Oo Lwin, and Mandalay ahead of anticipated attacks. The fighting is only 50 km from Pyin Oo Lwin. (Mandalay Free Press 11/9)
Political and economic-------------------
The National Unity Government is paying off its first issue of two-year treasury bonds, which were sold in 2021 and have now matured. Bond holders have the option of renewing. (People's Spring 11/9)
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