Burma coup resistance notes September 30, 2023
Shrinking junta now outnumbered by Revolution forces; 2 jets destroyed; PDF tragedy in Myinmu; Kawthoolei self-government becomes reality.
NUG interim president Duwa Lashila was interviewed by America’s Time Magazine, saying that resistance forces control 60% of Myanmar and are ramping up military operations, especially targeting Naypyitaw. (Time.com 9/29)
Ethnic regions
Kawthoolei----------------
According to the Karen Peace Support Network, the junta has lost 62 of its military positions in Kawthoolei since the coup, and has only been able to retake 8 of them; some of those 8 have been lost again recently such as Kwi Ler Dter. In addition, junta civil administration has virtually disappeared everywhere but Pa’an District. At the time of the coup, the Kawthoolei government (KNU) operated 382 schools, while the Burma government ran 370; now the KNU has 909 schools, with enrollment more than doubling in many of them, and the junta has none at all. Effectively, Kawthoolei is achieving self-government. (www.karenpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Shifting-Power-Balance-Eng-Sept-2023.pdf)
The Karen army and allied PDFs in Dooplaya District fought six clashes with junta troops over a 5-day period Sept. 22-26 at Kalei-Takondaing in Kyondo Township, killing 32 junta troops and wounding 6. Two Karen soldiers were also wounded. (KNU 9/28)
The Cloud Wings Drone Force, under Karen army Brigade 6, reports that it dropped over 100 60mm and 81mm bombs on junta targets in one week and killed at least 10 junta troops. The targets were in Kaw T’Ree, Notakaw, Kale Takondaing, Kwi La Dter, and other locations. One drone was brought down by the junta. (Mizzima 9/24)
The west bank of the Salween River near Pa’an town is part of Kawthoolei Doo Tha Htoo District called Pa’an Township, and most of it is under Karen army Brigade 1 control. Junta troops were moving around the area disguised as funeral workers, so Brigade 1 is inspecting traffic to prevent the movement of junta troops through Pa’an Township. (Khit Thit Media 9/28)
Ta’ang-------------------
The Ta’ang army continued defending against junta incursions into northwest Shan State this week, fighting in Muse and Kutkaing Townships. In Muse town the TNLA killed 9 junta troops including a commander. The Ta’ang captured some weapons. The junta attacked with a helicopter and two drones. (Mekong News 9/28) The Ta’ang are also fighting the junta 300 km away in Mogok town of Mandalay Region, to the southwest.
Kachin----------------
A PDF in Kachin State fired four 90mm and 107mm missiles into the Myitkyina air force base on Sept. 24, destroying 2 Chinese-made F-7 fighter jets and damaging the control tower. These Chinese jets, however, have been used very little since they have severe quality problems and had a habit of crashing, but they were being refueled when they were hit, so the junta had apparently recalled them to use. (Khit Thit Media 9/25)
A battle took place in Homalin Township of Sagaing Region, bordering on Kachin State, on Sept. 24, in which Kachin forces killed at least 20 junta troops and/or their Shanni proxy militia. The junta had attacked 2 days earlier. (People's Spring 9/25)
Kachin-led forces stormed a junta military office in Hpakant town on Sept. 25, while simultaneously attacking a police barracks to prevent troops there from reinforcing the military office. The office was overrun and destroyed, and troops fled. Kachin and PDF soldiers removed weapons and left before airstrikes could arrive. (The Irrawaddy E 9/26)
Kachin-led resistance forces attacked a navy boat in the Irrawaddy River at Shweku in Kachin State on Sept. 21, killing 9 troops and wounding 11 including the commander. (People's Spring 9/27)
Karenni-----------------
A woman died inside her own home from stepping on a landmine placed there by junta troops. She had returned home after a junta raid. (Kantarawaddy Times 9/26) The junta has been deliberately killing the civilian population.
Pa-O-----------------
The Pa-O National Federal Council, based in southern Shan State, is taking the first steps toward establishing a Pa-O ethnic State in the future federal union of Myanmar. It is drafting a constitution and mapping the state, with a plan for a referendum. (The Irrawaddy B 9/27) The Pa-O ethnicity comprises about 2.5 million people, or around 5% of Myanmar (Wikipedia), and doesn’t have its own political state. The so-called “Pa-O National Organization” is actually a proxy militia for the junta, so the people set up the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) after the coup to fight the junta. It is the armed wing of the PNFC.
People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)-----------------
A coalition of about 10 PDFs attacked a junta checkpoint garrison at the southern gate of Monywa city, capital of Sagaing Region, on Sept. 28. Five troops were initially killed and 20 wounded by grenade and gunfire, but 10 of the wounded died later. (Mizzima 9/29) Also in Monywa city, a PDF arrested a junta officer who was working as a doctor at a military hospital, at his home, on Sept. 4. The PDF confiscated his laptop, car, and phone, but left his wife at the house. (Myaelatt Athan 9/29)
The Burma Rangers PDF attacked a column of 200 junta troops in Shwebo Township on Sept. 20, blowing them up with 8 roadside bombs. Twelve troops were killed including a captain, and the column turned back. The junta threatened doctors not to reveal the condition of the wounded. (BBM 9/24)
PDFs in Minhla Township of Bago Region attacked junta troops on Sept. 23, killing 16 and wounding 20. A PDF soldier also died. The PDF retreated when it ran out of ammunition. (People's Spring 9/25)
A poorly-armed PDF in Myinmu Township of Sagaing Region suffered a devastating defeat on Sept. 22 as its fighters were defending their village against a junta terrorist invasion. The PDF was assisting residents of Jaw Min village to flee when junta troops caught and then killed 22 of them, along with 3 civilians. The report, with a picture, says the PDF only had 8 hand-made guns. (Mizzima 9/23)
In retaliation for that mass killing, PDF drone operators bombed junta troops the following day at the Myaung town admin office, killing 5 and wounding 4. (Myaelatt Athan 9/24) The Federal Wings drone force then bombed the junta police barracks and army camp in Myinmu on Sept. 28. (People's Spring 9/29)
Resistance forces have been focusing more firepower on the junta’s remaining bastions in urban areas, such as the main towns of townships. In Kaw T’Ree town of Dooplaya District in Kawthoolei, an unidentified group burned out the junta immigration office on Sept. 28. Chin forces attacked two junta admin offices in Kanpetlet town, killing 3 troops, and in Mindat town, killing a junta police. In Lashio, resistance forces bombed and burned a Denko fuel station, part of a chain owned by a junta crony, on Sept. 27. (Than Lwin Khet News 9/28)
There have also been numerous smaller-scale attacks on junta posts all around Myanmar, killing two to seven troops at a time, shrinking those small garrisons, and keeping the troops hunkered defensively.
Junta decline------------------
The junta’s internal purge continues; the latest to be dismissed is Lt. Gen. Soe Thut, former interior minister and right-hand man of dictator Min Aung Hlaing. Both of the dictator’s most trusted confidantes have now been purged. Soe Thut’s sons all operate crony businesses that enrich themselves through military contracts. (Salween Press 9/26) Turnover within the junta’s top ranks has been extremely high recently, causing instability within the regime, raising the possibility of an inside rebellion.
Due to its manpower shortage, the junta has redeployed workers from its equipment factories to go fight on the front lines. This has reduced the output capacity of the factories. Also, members of support battalions that do engineering, medical, communications, and artillery have been sent into combat roles. These workers are not effective in combat; they suffer much higher death rates than regular soldiers, and are more likely to desert the army when sent to the front lines. Analysts estimate average junta death toll at 15 per day since the war began, and its army has dropped from 200,000 members to 150,000, of which only 70,000 are available for combat. That means Revolutionary forces now outnumber the junta forces. (Myaelatt Athan 9/24)
The regime is sending police to fight on the front lines, especially in Kawthoolei, Karenni, Naypitaw, and Chin State. Most don’t want to fight as soldiers, and those with money are bribing their way into jobs at the national police HQ in Naypyitaw instead. The Naypyitaw HQ has become a “refugee camp” according to a watermelon source. (Khit Thit Media 9/29)
Two junta troops defected to the Chin defense forces in Matupi, Chin State, bringing weapons with them. (Khit Thit Media 9/24)
The junta is desperately recruiting warm bodies to replenish its shrinking ranks. Five youths were taken in Myangone Township of Yangon on Sept. 21, whom locals say include an alcoholic and 4 drug addicts. The junta is kidnapping youths and men it says violated curfew or traffic rules or the “guest list” regulations, and either ransoming them back to their families or forcing them into its military. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 9/24)
Pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia commit banditry to such an extent that some of the homes they looted in Kalay town in Sagaing Region turned out to be those of junta supporters. The local junta commander there had the Pyu Saw Htee leader brought in and beaten, and the Pyu Saw Htees were disarmed. (Zalen News 9/26)
The international sanctions against selling jet fuel to the Naypyitaw junta are so effective that the regime is now trying to make its own jet fuel. It wants to buy diesel fuel and convert it to jet fuel. (Khit Thit Media 9/30)
Terrorism--------------------
The weakened junta is attacking soft targets, civilians. In Chaung Oo troops were dropped by helicopter where they killed 9 civilians and a PDF police officer and kidnapped 80 civilians. In Palay Township they beheaded 3 men and disemboweled one. (The Irrawaddy 9/28) The junta bombed a monastery school in Wuntho Township on Sept. 28 and wounded 18 primary school children. (Mizzima 9/28) In Palaw Township of Kawthoolei’s Beit-Tavoy District troops destroyed 30 homes and 20 vehicles in 4 villages after losing 2 soldiers killed in fighting with local PDFs. (Tanintharyi Times 9/28) In Irrawaddy Region, they burned 20 homes and stole farming equipment in Hainji Jun Township on Sept. 26. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 9/29)
Junta troops destroyed a solar power micro-grid supplied by a PDF in a village in Kathah Township of Sagaing Region on Sept. 25. The mini-grid was only providing light to the village, and had no military application. It was an act of anti-civilian sabotage. (People's Spring 9/29)
Citizens are reporting a different sort of crime wave, by police. Cops are looting shops, and planting drugs on people to demand large ransoms, and extorting bribes, all around the country, in big cities and outlying areas alike. (Khit Thit Media 9/30)
Political and economic-------------------
The bankrupt regime’s latest grab at overseas workers’ salaries is a 10% income tax on their salaries. This is in addition to the 25% of salaries it already demands be transferred through junta-owned banks, where they lose 40% value due to the junta’s artificial exchange rate. The junta threatens non-compliant overseas workers that they will be banned from working abroad. (The Irrawaddy 9/23) It’s not clear how the junta will know who is earning what outside the country in order to tax it and calculate the 25%, or how it thinks it can stop people outside the country from working there.
China rejected a request from Min Aung Hlaing for an official invitation to visit Beijing. (The Irrawaddy B 9/26) China takes a great interest in protecting its investments in Burma, but like Russia, prefers to keep the Naypyitaw coup plotters at arm’s length. It is not an equal relationship.
-စီၤ ထံဆၢ